A brief analysis by Aurora Research has found that the required hydrogen consumption volumes needed for a German hydrogen network may fall short.
The Initiative Energien Speichern (INES) commissioned Aurora Energy Research to undertake the brief analysis, reviewing the hydrogen core grid, part of the National Hydrogen Strategy (NWS).
As part of the NWS, the transmission system operators (TSOs) submitted a draft application to the Federal Network Agency (BNetzA) on November 15, 2023, for the development of an efficient hydrogen network infrastructure. The draft proposed the creation of a hydrogen pipeline network, with a length of 9,721km and a total of 13 cross-border interconnection points to enable hydrogen import and exports with a capacity up to 59GW/h.
However, the Aurora Central and Net Zero scenario found the medium-term perspective up to 2030 to have significantly lower hydrogen consumption volumes than assumed for the hydrogen network planning. Aurora found volumes of 73 and 123TWh respectively, whilst the NWS assumes a demand between 95 and 130TWh in 2030.
Sebastian Heinermann, Managing Director of INES, said, “In view of the enormous quantities of hydrogen consumed, the hydrogen core network appears to be more of a hydrogen target network, and the truth is that we cannot yet see exactly what the target is.
“The Aurora short analysis shows us how great the uncertainties in network planning currently still are and how great the risk is that overcapacities will not be developed that may never be utilised.
“We therefore recommend identifying those parts of the hydrogen network for which there is relevance across several scenarios. For these parts of the network, dimensioning for longer-term requirements seems sensible.”
According to Aurora’s research, import capacities of around 10GWh/h will be required at border crossing points in the medium term to fully cover hydrogen consumption from the central scenario, but these must be supplemented by necessary redundancies such as N-1 security.
Last July (2023), the German cabinet approved an updated national hydrogen strategy, doubling its domestic 2030 electrolysis capacity target from 5GW to 10GW. By 2027/2028, the strategy plans for 1,800km hydrogen network of converted and newly build pipelines planned to be set up via EU funding.
Read more:Germany doubles domestic hydrogen production target to 10GW while planning import strategy
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